I don't know about the numbers but I have found that you can sustain a village of about 12 with just the trees, the honey and mushrooms as long as you keep the kids collecting mushrooms fairly regularly. If you keep an intense eye & consistently double or triple up kids on the mushrooms, and pause when you're away (even for a short time), a village of 15 to 17 is possible, but anything higher than that and you'll start running out of food.
You're exactly right, that's pretty well the numbers I strive for too. I don't usually add a chief either, till I have 15-17 villagers!