Okay I haven't made it thre all of this yet but here are my ideas.

A) The hunters idea from eyehigh is great (1)villager never returns (15%)
2)villager returns within a few minutes claming the paths were blocked and they could not go hunting (25%)
3)villager returns after full time with meager food allowance -say 100 (50%)
4)villager returns with a huge amount of food - say 5,000 (10%)